P(doom)
Shorthand in AI safety discussions for a person's estimated probability that advanced AI causes human extinction or civilizational collapse.
Explanation
P(doom), read as probability of doom, originated inside rationalist and AI-safety research communities as informal shorthand researchers used to compare personal estimates of catastrophic AI risk. The term reached wider public attention around 2023 as generative AI advanced quickly and prominent researchers, including some who helped build the technology, began publicly stating their own P(doom) figures, which range widely from near zero to over 50%. A widely cited 2023 survey of AI researchers found a mean estimate around 14% and a median around 5% for AI contributing to human extinction or similarly severe outcomes within 100 years. For marketers in the AI and technology space, the term functions mainly as cultural shorthand: using it correctly signals fluency with how the AI industry and its critics talk about existential risk, which shapes tone when writing about AI products.
Usage context / examples
A tech journalist asking an AI lab founder for their 'P(doom)' is asking, in a single phrase, how likely that person thinks it is that AI could end up causing catastrophic harm to humanity.
Related terms
AI safety, existential risk, AI alignment
Turkish definition
P(doom), gelişmiş yapay zekanın insanlığın yok oluşuna veya büyük bir çöküşe yol açma olasılığını ifade etmek için AI güvenliği çevrelerinde kullanılan bir kısaltmadır.
Source: MMA Academy Sözlük